Yankees and D'Backs Complete Randy Johnson Trade
I'm going to offer up my analysis of the recently completed trade between the D'Backs and the Yankees.

Yankees receive:
Randy Johnson

D'Backs receive:
Javier Vazquez
Brad Halsey
Dioner Navarro

First I'm going to look at what the D'Backs received.

JAVIER VAZQUEZ had good peripherals in 2004, but his ERA was high.
1.29 WHIP
.255 OP AVG
6.82 K/9
150 K, 60 BB
195 hits in 195 innings
33 HRA
4.91 ERA

If you look at Vazquez' career numbers, he has always given up a lot of HR. His K/9 was good at 6.82, but it was the lowest of his career. His BB/9 was a little lower than his career average, his 2004 OP AVG was lower than his career total, his OP OBP was slightly above his career mark (.313 in '04, .309 career). The biggest difference was in slugging percentage. Vazquez allowed the highest OP SLG in his career (.441), which was much higher than his career OP SLG (.425).

Still his ERA seems higher than it should have been. His ERA Component (a Bill James statistic that estimates what a pitcher's ERA "should've been" was 4.23. Really the thing that killed Vazquez wasn't just the HRA, but all the extra base hits allowed coupled with a lower K rate.

Some felt as though Vazquez was injured in 2004. Although he had a great year in 2003, Vazquez' career ERA is still at 4.26. He had three sub-3.00 ERA seasons in a row from 2001-2003, but before then posted ERAs of 6.06, 5.00, and 4.05. Anybody who has seen Vazquez when he is on knows what he can be. He throws four pitches for strikes with a fastball he can cut or sink, a slider, change and curve. I'm not saying he's the 5.00+ ERA pitcher of his earlier years, but maybe he's not the sub-3.50 ERA pitcher from 2001 and 2003. Still, he'll be 28 in 2005 and with that stuff and a string of three impressive seasons, Vazquez is a good replacement for Randy Johnson in Arizona--not to mention the other prospects the D'Backs received.

BRAD HALSEY will be 24 in 2005. The lefty will get a chance to step into the D'Backs rotation this season. He made his MLB debut in 2004. He did manage to get suspended three games for throwing at batters, despite only throwing 32 innings in the bigs. His ERA was 6.47, but he had a good K rate and K/BB ratio. Halsey dominated lefties in his short stint, but conversely was hit hard by righties. Whether or not this is a significant trend or just a statistical anomaly remains to be seen at this point in time. His minor league numbers were really good. Halsey sported a 2.63 ERA in 144 innings at AAA Columbus last year, striking out 109 while walking 37. He gave up less hits than innings pitched (128 hits in 144 innings).

DIONER NAVARRO was the best prospect in a depleted Yankees farm system. The switch-hitting catcher will be 21 in 2005. He struggled a little at AAA Columbus, hitting .250/.316/.360. He hasn't shown any power at any level of the minor leagues, hitting a career high 8 homeruns in 328 ABs in A ball back in 2002. He appears to be a good contact hitter, striking out 198 times versus 138 walks in the minors in about 850 plate appearances.

Well, what can you say about RANDY JOHNSON. For any other team (maybe with the exception of Boston), giving a 41 year-old a two or three year extension might be a bad idea. Realistically though, a multi-year extension for one of the best pitchers in baseball is a risk the Yankees can afford to take. After appearing to slip in 2003 (4.26 ERA), Johnson bounced back with a 2.60 ERA, leading the league in K's. Johnson struck out 290 and walked 44 while logging 245 2/3 innings, allowing just 177 hits. Giving an extension to a 41 year-old is a risky proposition, but really, have we seen many pitchers like Randy Johnson? Nolan Ryan maintained his success into his mid-to-late 40s, why not Johnson? Even if Johnson does finally breakdown, the money tied up in him won't financially strap the Yankees from making any more moves.

Overall I think this is a good deal for both teams. The D'Backs didn't need Randy Johnson or the amount of money tied up in him (no they'd rather overpay Troy Glaus off of shoulder surgery and Russ Ortiz, but that's a different story). Arizona adds Javier Vazquez and Brad Halsey, two pitchers who should step in and help out the worst team in baseball in 2004. The Yankees will head to spring training with a rotation of Mike Mussina, Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright. Yikes.