DODGERS, MARLINS MAKE BIG TRADE

Marlins get:
Paul Lo Duca
Guillermo Mota
Juan Encarnacion

Dodgers get:
Hee Seop Choi
Brad Penny
Bill Murphy

I think this is a great trade for Florida. They added a catcher who can hit, a lights-out set up man and if Encarnacion can swing the bat for the Marlins like he did last year it will work out even better.

For the Dodgers, they trade their leader and one of their most recognizable players in Lo Duca. I know people will say that leadership and all of that stuff is overrated, and it can be overrated to a certain extent, but I think whenever you trade a guy like Lo Duca it's a risky proposition, just because of what he means to that team. With the trade putting Choi at first base that means that Shawn Green will move back to RF.

BREWERS WIN, OUT OF LAST PLACE
 
The Brewers hit a few homeruns last night and got a solid outing from CHRIS CAPUANO which fueled a 6-3 win over the Cubs. With Pittsburgh losing to Atlanta last night that means the Brewers are at 49-51 and out of last place, where they only were for a day. Let's hope yesterday was the last time the Brewers will be in last place for a while.
 
I'm leaving for the Thursday afternoon game now, it'll be BEN HENDRICKSON against CARLOS ZAMBRANO. Should be interesting.

DOUG DAVIS SIGNS AN EXTENTION
 
The Brewers signed lefthanded pitcher Doug Davis to a two year extention that will run through 2006. At the maximum it is worth 5.7 mil, so it's definitely not going to be a crippling blow if he doesn't fulfill expectations. At the very worst Davis is a reliable innings eater, who has not missed a start in his entire professional career.
 
This seems to be the trend with Doug Melvin as GM, signing players to extentions that aren't going to be crippling in case they don't work out. With Jenkins struggling, it still doesn't handcuff the team when he's making seven or eight million a year as opposed to ten or eleven. We saw this approach with Keith Ginter's three-year deal and now with Davis. It's a good strategy to keep financial flexibility.

GREG MADDUX vs. BEN SHEETS
 
Future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux will face arguably one of the best young pitchers in the game tonight in Ben Sheets as the Brewers and Cubs face off in game two of a four game set.
 
Greg Maddux will sink, cut, and tail his fastball all night. If he can hit spots with his fastball it's difficult to beat him. His offspeed stuff is good, but it's not unhittable. It's really amazing to think of what Maddux has done in his career with a fastball that sits from about 85-88.
 
Ben Sheets will throw gas. He'll be low to mid 90s and will use his curveball, which very well might be the best curveball in the game. Sheets has been giving up the longball a little more in his last few starts. He doesn't walk people, and this is usually the part where I quote my pitching coach from my freshman year of college, Josh Belovsky who would say "nobody gets beat on solo jacks". Well Belo, you were wrong, the Milwaukee Brewers get beat on solo jacks all the time.

HOW DO YOU SHAKE UP THIS OFFENSE?
 
I have been very critical of the Brewers offense, as everybody has been lately. I've received a few emails asking things along the lines of "Bryan, what would you do?"
 
Well here it is...
 
                     AVG  OBP  SLG  HR
CF Brady Clark      .273 .377 .387   5
SS Craig Counsell   .250 .346 .336   2
RF Ben Grieve       .269 .386 .409   5
1B Lyle Overbay     .335 .401 .532  11
LF Geoff Jenkins    .248 .312 .432  14
2B Keith Ginter     .247 .318 .425  11
3B Helms/Branyan    .255 .324 .324   2 (Helms' numbers only)
C  Chad Moeller     .230 .291 .338   4
P  (Pitcher)
 
 
Some comments...
 
PODSEDNIK VS. BRADY CLARK
I think it's time to pull the plug on SCOTT PODSEDNIK. It's late July and his OBP is getting lower by the day. BRADY CLARK has a stronger arm in CF, and while he doesn't cover as much ground as Pods, he doesn't take as many bad routes so I think at the very worst it's a wash defensively, but you could argue that it's an improvement. Clark's OBP is at .377 right now, and perhaps he's playing over his head right now, but I think that it's a risk the Brewers should be willing to take. He can't do much worse than an OBP of .322.
 
 
KEEPING COUNSELL BATTING SECOND
Much has been made of the struggles CRAIG COUNSELL has had hitting in the 2 spot versus when he bats eighth. It's either that...
1) Taking more pitches than he's used to when Pods gets on base (when that actually happens) messes with his approach or
2) It's just an aberration
...With that said, Clark isn't as much of a threat to run, so Counsell could be more aggressive early in the count if that's what he feels comfortable doing.
 
 
JENKINS TO 5 SPOT
I think what I'm doing with this lineup is pretty obvious. Get the guys that have decent OBPs at the top of the lineup and let the guys with a little pop in their bats drive them in. Moving GEOFF JENKINS down will take a little pressure off of him, and his terrible OBP won't hurt you as much hitting fifth as it does hitting third.
 
 
PLATOONING BRANYAN WITH HELMS
Helms AVG and OBP are not too bad compared to his numbers last year, it's just that he hasn't been hitting for power like he did last year (23 HR). Platooning them would still give WES HELMS some at-bats in the hope that maybe he can find his power-stroke, and while RUSSELL BRANYAN has a low OBP and strikesout like crazy, he can hit the longball which is what this team really needs.
 
 
WHAT TO DO WITH THE BENCH
I would still work BILL HALL in because I think he has the makings of a decent offensive minded middle-infielder. With Podsednik on the bench I would still mix him in the lineup, but probably down in the order.
 
WHEN SPIVEY COMES BACK
I would put Spivey back at second base (assuming he isn't traded) and then put Ginter at third and mix in Branyan. Depending on whether or not Helms remembers how to field and hit for power would determine how much PT he would get.
 
Well I'd like to hear what people think about this proposed Brew Crew lineup. Feel free to sound off on the message board.

BREWERS IN 5TH PLACE, 1/2 GAME AHEAD OF PITT
 
With the way the NL is shaping up so far this year, one day you're talking wild-card, the next day you're talking last-place. With the Milwaukee Brewers delving deep into the expected "collapse" that all of us cynical Brewers fans had predicted, it looks like the Crew could be heading into last place unless Pittsburgh cools off or the Brewers heat up again.
 
I'd like to pose a question to all of the readers. With the Brewers 48-50, two games below .500, will the Brewers get over .500 again this season? I had felt earlier in the season that if they fell below .500 that they would never get back to that plateau, but they proved me wrong once before...Will they prove me wrong again?

BREWERS INTERESTED IN RUSS BRANYAN
 
No word on how they will acquire him, but GM DOUG MELVIN has basically made it clear that the Brewers will acquire Russ Branyan. He is having a very good year at AAA Buffalo in the Indians organization. Branyan strikes out a ton, but unlike the other Brewers that strikeout a ton, Branyan has some pop. In his MLB career he's hit .227/.318/.472 (an OPS of 790) which would be better than everybody but LYLE OVERBAY.
 
How do the Brewers make room for Branyan? I hope they designate MATT KINNEY for reassignment. He had a particularly awful outing yesterday, and after looking decent in the pen for a while has gone back to being Matt Kinney. I don't think anybody would claim Kinney, and if they do I don't think it's a big loss.
 
Where would Branyan play? Third base. At the very least platoon him and Helms or Ginter or whoever. I would stick with a platoon of Grieve and Clark in right. Grieve has to be in the lineup more, so I wouldn't put Branyan in the outfield.
 
This is a low-risk situation, unless the Brewers give up a quality prospect or player, which I highly doubt. He seems to have the career path of Wes Helms...A guy who put up monster numbers in the minor leagues but wasn't really given a shot in the big leagues (Branyan never had more than 400 abs in a big league season).
 
The Brewers need some power and this might be an easy way to add a little of it.

3-8 ROADTRIP BRINGS BREWERS BELOW .500
 
The Brewers had an awful roadtrip, winning just three games of eleven. It's going to be difficult for the Brewers to have a lot of success if they continue to
1) not get on base
2) not hit homeruns
3) not hit with runners in scoring position.
 
...especially if the pitching staff stops holding opponents to under three runs like they had so many times in the first half of the year.
 
I know the idea of "clutch" hitting has been debated by many people, especially in the blogosphere. I've read some really great things read by Rob Neyer, Bill James and others about whether or not it exists. I still believe that in general there aren't many players that dramatically increase their performance, or dramatically decrease their performance in "clutch" situations. With that said, the Milwaukee Brewers have to have the greatest amount of statistically anomalies known to man in each batting order they put forth.
 
The problem is, as many of the coaches and players have said, is that with so much being made of their struggles with runners in scoring position they have begun to "press". You can't overthink an at-bat, and that is why I think you'll see a lot of guys chase breaking balls out of the zone and then take fastballs down the middle. Sometimes you can "try" too hard, and I think a lot of the Brewers hitters are experiencing that right now. How do you get over it? I'm not really sure. Either you find a way to get out of your head and just react or you get a few hits and then you start to relax.
 
Part of the Brewers problems with runners in scoring position could be the fact that they don't have that great of an offense to begin with, so why would they be any different with RISP? I think that the big thing is that they struggle a lot with moving runners over in situations that warrant it or in situations that they just need to make contact to bring a run in.

RICKY WILLIAMS QUITS
Miami Dolphins runningback Ricky Williams "retired" right before the start of training camp, leaving his team in an absolute mess.
 
While I understand that if he really didn't want to play anymore he shouldn't, but why not make that decision in January? He totally bailed on his teammates and left Miami in a very difficult situation. Now the Dolphins will go to camp with TRAVIS MINOR and SAMMY MORRIS competing for the starting tailback position.
 
Making it worse, Williams didn't even meet with his team or have a press conference or anything. He just up and left. I have no problem with the guy not wanting to play anymore, but I feel as though he has an obligation to his teammates to tell them early enough where the team can go out and get a runningback to replace him. What he did was selfish.

BREWERS BATS COME ALIVE
 
Maybe we all should've known that something was up when SCOTT PODSEDNIK lead off with a homerun Friday night, scoring more runs in one swing than the Brewers had scored in the previous two games.
 
The Brewers finally hit the long ball on Friday. Along with Podsednik's 10th homerun of the season, KEITH GINTER added a solo shot (his 11th) on the first pitch he saw leading off the sixth. BEN GRIEVE hit his first homerun since May 28th, which was a big one because it actually came with men on base.
 
DAN KOLB added his 29th save of the year. The Brewers win and are at 48-47. They are still only 4.5 out of the wild card, but there are five teams ahead of them.
 
 

FRUSTRATION
The Milwaukee Brewers held baseball's best offense to three hits (two by pitcher WOODY WILLIAMS) and one run last night, and lost.
 
Watching the Brewers has become incredibly frustrating over the past few days. They simply cannot score runs. They aren't getting on-base, when they get on-base they're not hitting. They don't hit homeruns, they don't move runners over. How can an offense be so inept?
 
Think back to spring training...When everybody looked at the Brewers roster what did they think? "This team will mash, but their pitching will be below average at best". Well here we are in mid-July and the Brewers offense is embarrassing while the pitching staff has been phenomenal.
 
The Brewers need some power in their lineup. If GEOFF JENKINS doesn't start providing that they're going to have to find it somewhere.

A TRIP TO THE DENTIST
I went to the dentist this morning...Here are some thoughts from the trip...
 
...Have you ever noticed how a lot of hygenists are hot females? I have two theories on why this is true...
1) They want you to keep coming back
2) They want you to work extra hard to keep your teeth clean as a pathetic attempt to impress her
 
...Could that cardboard they put in your mouth when they x-ray your teeth get any sharper?
 
...Being in a dentists chair with somebody manipulating your teeth with sharp instruments might be the most subordinate position known to man. If you ever want to hear somebody speak the truth get them in that chair and start jabbing at their gums with one of those poker-things...No way somebody could lie in that situation. I guess the bright light shining in your face makes it seem even more like an interrogation. Put OJ on that dentists chairs and see if he'll say he's innocent. I think it's worth a shot.
 
...Why easy-listening? I think the music at the dentist's office should fit the mood...If they're doing some serious drilling I want to hear some Metallica
 
 
 
 

NL WILDCARD BUSINESS
Here is the NL Wild Card race...
 
Team             W    L    %    GB
San Francisco   51    42  .548  --
San Diego       49    42  .538   1
Chicago         49    42  .538   1
Philly/Atlanta  48    43  .527   2
Milwaukee       47    43  .522  2.5
Cincinnati      48    44  .522  2.5
 
Brewers upcoming schedule...
@Cincinnati (2)
@St. Louis (2)
@Houston (3)
Chicago (4)

FORMER BREWER DEJEAN SHIPPED TO THE METS
Mike DeJean, who was having an absolutely terrible year in Baltimore, has been given a change of scenery and is now a New York Metropolitan (read about the trade here).
 
DeJean's ERA was over 9.00 for a while in Baltimore, but has lowered his ERA to the mid-6's after having an ERA of 4.05 in June and July.
 
I lost a lot of respect for Mike DeJean last July. He was in the middle of a rough stretch, where I think he blew three or four saves in a row. A fan was heckling him (and rightly so) while DeJean was warming up to go in and pitch the ninth, and DeJean displayed his rabbit ears by getting into an argument with the fan, even reaching for the classic "meet me in the parking lot" line. The fan actually said something like "you're about to go pitch in a Major League game and you're wasting your time with a drunk fan? What is wrong with you?".
 
For the record, DeJean went in and blew the save...

BREWERS EARN SPLIT WITH CUBS
 
I just got done watching the Brewers defeat the Cubs 4-2, thus earning a split of the four-game set.
 
CHRIS CAPUANO had another solid start, despite battling some control issues early on. JEFF BENNETT allowed one run, while MIKE ADAMS and DAN KOLB each threw a shutout frame to help the Brewers get the W.
 
It sure is a lot easier to score runs when your leadoff hitter gets on-base. SCOTT PODSEDNIK went 3-5 with a double, triple and RBI and also stole a base.
 
Now it's on to Cincy for a two and the second MLB start for BEN HENDRICKSON.
 
 

SOLID OUTING BY SHEETS IS WASTED
 
Greg Maddux absolutely dominated the Brewers today...So much for my gut-feeling that the Brewers were going to break-out against the future Hall of Famer. Maddux made the Crew keep the ball on the ground and didn't allow very many hard hit balls the entire afternoon.
 
BEN SHEETS gave up two-runs on two solo homeruns (by ALOU and SOSA) in seven-innings of work, walking one and striking out eight. He still leads all of baseball in ERA with a 2.28 mark.
 
The Brewers look to get a split in the four-game set tomorrow when CHRIS CAPUANO faces KERRY WOOD.

POST SEASON AND ALL STAR GAME FORMAT CHANGES?
 
Jayson Stark wrote an article about possible changes to the All-Star Game format as well as the entire Post-Season format (article here). I'm going to comment on some of the proposals...
 
 
America vs. The World All-Star Game
Do people really like this? I guess it's a good way to drum up nationalistic feelings among sports fans, but is this really the time in the world when we want to fight another "America vs. The World" battle? The NHL tried this format for a few years and scrapped it because it was lame. I don't see the appeal of it and I can't really see it increasing ratings at all. America vs. the World, or another name for that could be "White vs. Non-White", because that's essentially what it would be.
 
 
6 Teams From Each League in the Playoffs
What? What!??!?!?!
 
I'm glad that SANDY ALDERSON (of all people) has the foresight to see that this is a bad idea. The regular season would be completely diminished, the division titles would be pretty much rendered meaningless. Yes, the two best teams would get a bye, but the two best teams would still have to win two series to make it to the World Series. I just don't see how the benefits of this system could possibly outweigh the costs.
 
 
I really don't like the idea of baseball adding more teams to the playoff mix. I might be fighting a losing battle, but I do not think it's in the best interest of Major League Baseball or it's fans.

BEN SHEETS VS. GREG MADDUX
 
I'm very excited to watch the Brewers game today. Ben Sheets will make his first start of the second half against future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux. I'm surprised that this game wasn't added to the Fox Saturday Baseball lineup, but I guess not even the genius TV executives could've foreseen a competitive Brewers team with Ben Sheets leading the NL in ERA.
 
I have a good feeling about the Brewers today, not just because Sheets is pitching. I have a feeling (and I'm not sure quite why) that Greg Maddux is going to get hit hard. I hope I'm right.

BREWERS EVEN SET WITH CUBS, ANALYSIS OF CUBS OFFENSE
 
The Cubs were leading the Brewers 2-0 and the season appeared to be dying. Brewers' fans could sense that the season was collapsing...just like it felt when Pittsburgh swept the Crew in four, just like it felt when Colorado took two of three, just like it felt at the start of the big west coast trip...And just like those times, the Crew bounced back.
 
BILL HALL made a crucial error on a possible double-play ball that opened up the chance for MATT CLEMENT to hit a two-run single. Hall added an RBI groundout in the fourth to make it 2-1. GEOFF JENKINS hit a booming homerun in the sixth to tie the game at 2. Bill Hall then got an enormous jump off of Matt Clement and stole second, then advanced to third when Clement panicked and threw a wild pitch. BROOKS KIESCHNICK added a pinch-hit RBI single to give the Crew a 3-2 lead, and of course MIKE ADAMS, LUIS VIZCAINO and DAN KOLB shut down the Cubs by each throwing a scoreless/hitless inning and giving the Brewers the win.
 
As bad as the Brewers offense has been, the Cubs aren't much better. The Cubs seem to have the opposite problem the Brewers have. While the Brewers need power bats and are decent in OBP, the Cubs have power but lack OBP. The Cubs are 22nd in MLB in OBP (.326) and 8th in SLG (.446), which is a team OPS of .772. The Brewers team OPS is .723.
 
The thing that amazes me is how bad the Cubs offense is. With guys like SAMMY SOSA, DEREK LEE, MOISES ALOU, and then solid hitters like COREY PATTERSON, MICHAEL BARRETT, ARAMIS RAMIREZ (who is hurt), and even a guy like MARK GRUDZIELANEK, you would think this team would score more runs. For whatever reason they don't. The Cubs are 17th in MLB in runs scored. This team needs a high OBP guy on top of the lineup, not a RAMON MARTINEZ or JOSE MACIAS. As my infamous pitching coach JOSH BELOVSKY said my freshman year of college "nobody gets beat on solo jacks". It's true though, it takes an awful lot of homeruns to accumulate a decent total of runs when you have nobody on base.

BREWERS OFFENSE CONTINUES TO SUCK
 
How bad is a team's offense when their pitching staff gives up four runs and the team has absolutely no chance to win?
 
GLENDON FREAKING RUSCH shut the Brewers down after the Crew scored their only run off of MARK PRIOR in the first.
 
The Brewers get on-base at a decent clip (20th in MLB) but they do not hit for power and they do not hit with runners in scoring position. That is why the team is in the bottom of MLB in runs scored. You can't win many games when you score less than two runs, no matter how brilliant your pitching staff is.
 
The Brewers look to rebound this afternoon at Wrigley Field.

UNOFFICIAL SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON TO BEGIN TONIGHT
 
Well with the Brewers set to face the Cubs tonight in Chicago, I thought I'd do a quick preview of the second-half of the season. The big question around Milwaukee is whether or not the Brewers are for real. Was their 45-41 record overachieving, underachieving, or just right?
 
3 REASONS WHY THE BREWERS WILL FINISH OVER .500
 
1)GEOFF JENKINS WILL START HITTING
His career OPS was 865 entering 2004. This year his OBP is at .310, and he has an OPS of .741. Jenks has had some solid years, but injuries have always plagued him. He's finally healthy, so he should start hitting.
 
2)SCOTT PODSEDNIK ISN'T THIS BAD
A career minor-leaguer, Podsednik broke onto the scene last year and won almost all of the NL Rookie of the Year awards (except MLB's of course). So far in 2004 he is at .253/.327/.398. A far cry from 2003. I don't think anybody expected Pods to be as good as he was in 2003, but something close to a .260/.340/.415 I thought was more realistic.
 
3)BEN HENDRICKSON WILL BE A SOLID #5 STARTER
Although WES OBERMUELLER wasn't terrible as a #5 starter, in the end he couldn't get the job done. Hendrickson has been a stud in the Brewers' system for a few years and will do a solid job as the Brewers #5.
 
 
3 REASONS WHY THE BREWERS WON'T FINISH OVER .500
 
1)THE STARTING PITCHING CAN'T HOLD UP
BEN SHEETS is the real deal, but a sub 2.50 ERA is tough to do in any league, let alone the Major Leagues. DOUG DAVIS, VICTOR SANTOS and CHRIS CAPUANO have been outstanding for the Brewers in the first half, but how many times can the Brewers allow 3 or less runs?
 
2)THE OFFENSE SUCKS
For lack of a better term. Jenkins and Podsednik look absolutely lost at the plate. This team doesn't have enough power to drive runs in and strikes out too much and can't run enough to manufacture runs. Why do you think they are 14th in the NL in runs scored? No matter how well the pitching does, you can't finish over .500 when an offensive outburst is more than four runs.
 
3)THE NL CENTRAL IS TOO TOUGH
Playing 60% of their games against the Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, Reds and Pirates will catch up to the Crew. Despite a slow start, Houston is still an outstanding club. You could make a case that the Cardinals, Cubs and Astros are three of the best teams in the NL. Cincinnati is solid and we know how the Brewers do against the Pirates.
 
 
CONCLUSION
I really want this Brewers team to finish over .500. I think all of us Brewers fans deserve the opportunity to cheer for a good club for the first time since 1992. The unofficial second half of the season kicks off tonight from Wrigley Field when Doug Davis faces MARK PRIOR.
 

PHIL GARNER IN, JIMY WILLIAMS AS HOUSTON MANAGER
Ol' Scrap Iron has a new job. He'll be the manager of the underachieving Houston Astros. This move didn't really surprise anybody, as everybody expected some type of move to be done by the Houston Astros, who were picked to be one of the top teams in baseball, but find themselves in 5th place in the NL Central.

Phil Garner worked his magic for one year as a rookie manager of the Brewers back in 1992. That year the Brewers ran wild all over the American League. It didn't hurt that they lead the AL in ERA either. Garner's next best year was when the team finished 80-82 in 1996. He was at the helm of the Brewers from 1992 until the final days of 1999.

Garner managed the Detroit Tigers from 2000 until the early days of 2002. His career record as a manager is 708-802 (.469).

I don't know how much this move will help the Astros, because Garner seemed to like to run a lot, but he doesn't really have the personnel to employ that type of strategy. BELTRAN can run, BIGGIO a little, but other than that I don't see an opportunity for him to have this squad run wild like the '92 Brewers did.

Jimy Williams was the scape goat in Boston a few years ago, when he was replaced by JOE KERRIGAN and Boston quickly faded away.

CLASSIC ALL-STAR GAME MOMENTS
There are many classic moments from the MLB All-Star Game over the years. BABE RUTH hitting the first ever homerun, TED WILLIAMS hitting a walk-off homerun, PETE ROSE running over RAY FOSSE at homeplate, or even CAL RIPKEN, JR. homering in his final All-Star Game appearance...But my favorite All-Star moment has to be when CARL HUBBELL struck out five Hall of Famers in a row in the 1934 All-Star Game.

Said Hubbell of that day...

"They talk about those All-Star Games being exhibition affairs, and maybe they are, but I've seen very few players in my life who didn't want to win, no matter whom they were playing or what for. If I'm playing cards for pennies, I want to win. How can you feel any other way? Besides, there were 50,000 fans or more there, and they wanted to see the best you've got. There was an obligation to the people, as well as to ourselves, to go all out. I can recall walking out to the hill in the Polo Grounds that day and looking around the stands and thinking to myself, "Hub, they want to see what you've got.""

People who are regulars at Against the Grain know that I love the old-school mentality that players had. I know it's become popular to discount players who play hard or play the game the right way, but as a fan I like to watch players play hard. I don't know anybody who doesn't. How can you not love a player who says what Carl Hubbell said above this paragraph? That attitude is what makes competition so great. Ultimately that is why we love to watch. We love to see athletes giving everything they have to accomplish what every competitor wants to do, and that is win. I apologize for that BILL WALTON-esque digression, but it just felt like the right thing to do...Back to the story...

Hubbell struck out BABE RUTH, LOU GEHRIG, JIMMIE FOXX, AL SIMMONS and JOE CRONIN. Here is Carl Hubbell's description of that day (click here).

I provided the links to the baseballreference.com page for each of the aforementioned Hall of Famers just so everybody could easily access their numbers and truly appreciate what Hubbell did. Enjoy the game tonight.

CONGRESSMAN DITKA?!?!?!
There are rumors circulating that former Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints head coach (remember he coached the Saints?), legendary tough guy and Levitra spokesman Mike Ditka is interested in a possible run for political office.

Rumors are that he would like to run for the Senate, but why stop there? I want PRESIDENT DITKA! Maybe Ken from Jeopardy and Mike Ditka could be a combined ticket. Ditka the tough guy facade and Ken the brains behind the operation. I don't know if the world is ready for that though. I don't know if I'm ready for that.

UPDATE: Ditka is the spokesman for Levitra, not Viagra. Thank you, Chad for the correction.

2004 ALL STAR GAME
The best All-Star game professional sports has to offer is tonight in Houston. The MLB All-Star Game, although it has turned into more of an exhibition in recent years, is still an incredibly well played game when compared to it's NFL, NHL and NBA counterparts.

At least in the MLB All-Star game you get a score that is like a real baseball game. Not many NBA games are 140-135, not many NHL games are 9-6, and not many NFL games are 55-49. It's the only All-Star game that people actually care about. Even though I'm not a big fan of the "highstakes exhibition game" that the MLB All-Star Game has become, still you can't deny that it makes it more relevant than what the other sports offer. It's the only All-Star game that I will watch for more than a few minutes. And as a side note, I really hope BEN SHEETS and DAN KOLB get into the game and face a few hitters.

I wish there was more animosity between the leagues, like it was in the old days. I will be cheering for the National League, not only because the Brewers are in the NL but because when the Brewers get to the series I want to see them with homefield advantage!

MLB HOMERUN DERBY
MIGUEL TEJADA won the homerun derby last night in Houston. I watched the entire derby, and it was a good show. I wish people that don't play baseball could fully appreciate how impressive Major League hitters are. The swings that those guys take look so effortless at times that I have a feeling people sometimes think that hitting the ball out of the park isn't that difficult. LANCE BERKMAN put on a good show as well. It really was fun to watch, it brought up memories of attending the 2002 HR Derby in Milwaukee.

KEN FROM JEOPARDY
Somebody should hire this guy as a GM. He knows it all. I'm convinced he's the smartest person in the history of the world. He's won 30 days in a row, compiling over a million dollars in winnings.

This Ken guy is the man. Houston needs a manager to replace JIMY WILLIAMS? Ken's your man. The USA needs a new President? Forget GW or KERRY, Ken is the best man for the job. I guarantee Ken would erase the national debt, put an end to world hunger and create world peace within his first 100 days in office.

In Ken We Trust.

UNOFFICIAL HALF-WAY POINT
It's the All-Star break and the Milwaukee Brewers are 45-41. Nobody could have predicted the first half that this team had, and hopefully they continue to keep things going. I am going to write an in depth review of the first half sometime over the ASB, but until then, enjoy the festivities.

RAY KING
Everyday Ray is having a great year. Being a left-handed specialist doesn't give you a lot of national press, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a more reliable left-handed reliever than Ray King.

Here are his 2004 numbers...
2-0, 1.16 ERA

and his peripherals...
31 IP, 0.94 WHIP, 5.81 K/9, 2.00 K/BB, OPP OPS .480

It isn't even like he's only dominating lefties either.

Here are his numbers against righties...

.192 AVG, .267 OBP, .250 SLG (.517 OPS)

He also has not given up a run in his last 20.2 IP entering today's game.

How much does it cost for one of the finest left-handed specialists in the game?

$900,000 in 2004.

Sounds like a pretty good deal to me.

GINTER UPDATE
I knew Keith Ginter read my blog, I just knew it.

Yesterday I had a relatively long post about how I think Ginter would benefit from being a little more aggressive at the plate...Wouldn't you know that his two-run jack of of PAUL WILSON would come on a first pitch fastball down the middle that he jumped all over.

KEITH GINTER'S APPROACH
Believe me, this is not an attack on drawing walks. It's not necessarily an attack on taking pitches. But when people know what you're doing, sometimes you have to make adjustments. Look at Keith Ginter's 2004 numbers so far.

You can look at Ginter's complete breakdown on ESPN.com by clicking here.

231 total ABs
123 start out 0-1
97 start out 1-0
11 first pitch's in play

...Ginter takes a pitch about 90% of the time. Using these numbers is somewhat flawed because a foul-strike on the first pitch will go down as starting 0-1...Without counting foul-strikes 95% of his at-bats start out either 0-1 or 1-0. I'm assuming that he's fouled a few pitches off on the first pitch of an at-bat, which would put him between 90% and 93% on first-pitch takes.
...It's interesting to note that when KG starts out 0-1, as he has 123 times, he has only drawn five walks (OBP of .305).

Well what about when Ginter gets ahead, say 2-0...how does he fair?

231 total Abs
32 at-bats start out 2-0

...14% of his atbats get to 2-0. The main idea here being that it is difficult to get to a 2-0 count when other teams know a hitter is up there with the bat on his shoulder.

What amazes me is that Ginter has only 8 at-bats in 2-0 counts...Again, fouling off a pitch doesn't count as an "at-bat" on this ESPN.com statsheet, so it's not entirely accurate.

How about with a 2-1 count?

231 total ABs
57 at-bats start out 2-1

...25% of his at-bats get to a 2-1 count, which (without knowing MLB averages for this kind of thing) I would imagine is pretty good. This is where I see a problem though.

11 at-bats with a 2-1 count.

Meaning, KG is taking a lot of pitches at 2-1. This is where the "take a pitch for the sake of taking a pitch" idea is really flawed. By taking a strike 2-1 you're completely losing your advantage as a hitter. Again, lets break down his at-bats.

231 total ABs
57 at-bats start out 2-1
11 at-bats AT 2-1
58 at-bats at 2-2
32 at-bats at 3-2

The one thing I don't like about the ESPN.com breakdown is that it doesn't have 3-1 counts or breakdowns for 3-0 counts (although most hitters don't swing 3-0). With the data I have, and from watching a lot of Keith Ginter in person, I would conclude that he needs to be more aggressive.

I know telling somebody to be "more aggressive" at the plate has turned into a sin in the blogosphere/SABRQuixotic world, but I think there are cases when it's true.

As a hitter you want to be able to work your way to hitter's counts...2-0, 2-1, 3-1...If you're up there taking a strike, and EVERYBODY knows it, you're rarely going to get into those counts.

I've never understood the mentality of "taking a pitch for the sake of taking a pitch". Sure it has it's time and place, but when you're letting fastballs go down the middle of the plate consistently, what is the point of that? If the best pitch you see in an at-bat is the first one, why not swing at it? How many first-pitch fastballs does BARRY BONDS let go down the middle of the plate? I know a counter argument to that would be "he doesn't see many" but if he were to see a first-pitch fastball down the middle of the plate say 50% of the time, do you think he'd revert to automatically taking it? I GUARANTEE that he would be up there hacking.

I know Ginter has the perfect SABRQuixotic approach to hitting. He is hitting .260/.331/.437, which is good for a backup infielder/utilityman type player, but how great of an approach can he have if he has more K's than hits?

Again, in conclusion, I think Ginter would benefit from being more aggressive at the plate. As I said in my "SABRQuixotic" posts and my "Selective Aggressive" posts a few months back, being "aggressive" at the plate doesn't mean swinging at breaking balls in the dirt on the first pitch...It means looking for your pitch and when it comes driving it with power.

BUST OUT THE BROOMS; BREWERS SWEEP CUBS
Maybe It's time to stop doubting the 2004 Milwaukee Brewers.

When the Brewers went out on their big west coast trip I kept waiting for the wheels to fall off.

When they lost 2 of 3 to Colorado and went on a road trip that included Minnesota, Colorado and Pittsburgh, I was waiting for the wheels to fall off.

When they were swept by last-place Pittsburgh in a four game set I was waiting for the wheels to fall off...And they never did.

11 seasons of losing baseball will make a fan cynical. My cynicism may have been slightly dissipated by the Brewers three-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs, behind outstanding pitching that held the Cubs to two runs in three games.

DOUG DAVIS (9-6) had arguably one of the best outings of his career, throwing eight shutout innings while allowing only four hits, two walks and striking out a career high nine. MIKE ADAMS lowered his ERA to 1.19 by pitching a perfect ninth to seal the victory.

Offensively GEOFF JENKINS put together a solid game, going 2-5 while hitting his 12th homerun of the season, a two run shot that gave the Brewers a 3-0 lead in the third inning. WES HELMS was 2-3 with an RBI and CHAD MOELLER was 2-4. BEN GRIEVE continues to put together good days at the plate, he was 1-3 with a walk and an RBI.

The win pulls the Milwaukee Brewers within 1 game of the Wild Card, but with essentially two teams ahead of them, it will take a few more wins to get on top of those standings.

WILD CARD STANDINGS
*GAMES BACK OF WILD CARD
CHI ---
SD/LA ---
SFO 0.5
MIL 1.0
CIN 2.0

Cincinnati comes to town for a four game set starting tonight at Miller Park. The Reds are one-game behind Milwaukee, which means this is a very big series for both teams heading into the All-Star break.

PAUL WILSON (8-2, 3.63 ERA) and WES OBERMUELLER (3-4, 6.82 ERA) are the pitchers for Tonight's contest.

AARON HARANG (4-2, 4.71 ERA) will face CHRIS CAPUANO (3-4, 3.69 ERA) on Friday night.

COREY LIDLE (6-6, 4.84 ERA) will throw against All-Star BEN SHEETS (8-5, 2.42 ERA) on Saturday night.

JOSE ACEVEDO (4-7, 5.20 ERA) will face VICTOR SANTOS (8-3, 3.91 ERA) in the final game before the All-Star Break.

This series could go along way in determining whether or not the Brewers are buyers or sellers in this year's trading season.

BREWERS WITH ANOTHER BIG WIN
For the second game in a row the Brewers provided all of their offense in the first inning and made it hold up.

The Brewers got to MARK PRIOR (2-2) early. SCOTT PODSEDNIK led off with a double, a ball that should've been fielded by Cubs SS RAMON MARTINEZ. CRAIG COUNSELL then laid down a perfect bunt and 3B BRENDAN HARRIS, who was making his MLB debut, overthrew firstbase and Pods came around to score and Counsell was put on second. BEN GRIEVE drew a walk in the first and then KEITH GINTER hit a line-drive homerun into the Brewers bullpen on a 3-1 pitch that gave the Brewers an early 4-0 lead.

GEOFF JENKINS continued to look bad at the plate, going 0-3 with a walk. He is now hitting at a .249/.311/.429 clip with 11 homeruns. I'm thinking that it might be time to move Jenks out of the #3 spot, especially with Grieve getting hot. Perhaps putting Grieve at #3, OVERBAY at #4 and Jenkins at #5 would take some pressure off of the struggling Brewers leftfielder. I'm guessing that it'll only be a matter of time before Brewers fans start booing him because he is really having an awful year.

As I alluded to earlier, Ben Grieve has been looking much better at the plate. He's got his OBP up to .409 right now, with a solid 1-2 with two walks last night. The only thing that worries me about Grieve is that he isn't hitting for much power (4 HR, 10 2B) his last homerun came on May 28th against San Diego.

VICTOR SANTOS improved his record to 8-3. The Crew is getting a pretty good return on a guy who was a non-roster invitee and who started the year at AAA Indianapolis. Entering this season he had a career record of 2-8 and posted an ERA of 7.01 with Texas in 2003 and an ERA of 10.39 for Colorado in 2002.

NL WILD CARD STANDINGS
CHI 46-37 ---
LA 44-37 1.0
SF 45-39 1.5
MIL 43-38 2.0
CIN 44-39 2.0
FLA 43-41 3.5
NYM 42-40 3.5

GAGNE'S STREAK ENDS
All good things must come to an end.

And that it did. Last night ERIC GAGNE's amazing streak of 84 consecutive saves came to an end as he gave up two runs in the ninth inning of a 5-3 game against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

This streak did not get enough attention. Call it east-coast bias, call it what you will, but this streak did not command the admiration and respect that it should have. Look at how Gagne's streak came to an end last night...LUIS GONZALEZ hits a double that stays fair by less than two feet, and then he gives up a RBI single on a bouncer that goes between the first baseman and second baseman. Just like that, a little bad luck and the streak is over. So many crazy things can happen in a baseball game, and for Gagne to prevent those types of things from happening over the past two years is really remarkable.

Hats-off to the Dodgers fans for giving Gagne a standing ovation and demanding a curtain call after the top of the ninth. It's nice to see that the Dodger fans appreciated what Gagne did over a streak that will not be equaled in my life-time.

BREWERS WIN 1-0
Today was fun.

When I arrived at the stadium two and a half hours before the game there was all ready traffic backed up from the parking lot onto the freeway. Today definitely had an opening day-type atmosphere. I'd say "playoff game" atmosphere, but since I've never attended something like that in baseball I can't really say what that is like.

CRAIG COUNSELL provided all the offensive output for the Brewers today with a solo homerun in the bottom of the first. BEN GRIEVE continued to look good at the plate, drawing three walks in his only three plate appearances. As a team the Brewers drew six walks, but when you only have three hits (one of them a solo homerun) and with a team that strikes out so much it's difficult to score a lot of runs.

GEOFF JENKINS looked absolutely brutal at the plate...again. It seems like just when he appears to be turning the corner he goes back into another slump. In his final at-bat he took a fastball down the middle for strike one. He then worked the count to 3-1 and took a fastball down the middle for strike two. Then he chases a high fastball out of the zone for strike three and the hat trick. WES HELMS also had the silver sombrero. Not to blame today's offensive struggles squarely on the Brewers hitters, I mean MATT CLEMENT had good stuff...But I've seen the likes of JOSH FOGG and DENNY STARK shut this team down a few too many times so I guess a little frustration might be setting in.

KEITH GINTER has been swinging the bat better as of late, but continues to leave lots of runners on base. Today he left six runners on and grounded into a double play. Here is the thing with Ginter. Much has been made about the Brewers' inability to drive runners in, and I don't know if it's some sort of mental block, a flaw in their approach or just a little bad luck...Whatever it is it doesn't seem to be going away.

Now let's talk about the really good stuff. The pitching. All-Star BEN FREAKING SHEETS. Seven innings, four hits, twelve K's, one walk, ZERO runs allowed. Good for him that he got the win to show for his tremendous outing today. He threw a lot of pitches, which is why he only went seven innings.

LUIS VIZCAINO threw the ball well, despite having some runners on base in the 8th and things getting a little interesting. He retired the first two batters he faced on strikeouts. He gave up a solidly hit ball to rightfield that BRADY CLARK got a bad read on and let fall infront of him for a single. Then SAMMY SOSA swung at the first pitch he saw and rolled it over but it took a high hop and Helms wasn't able to field it cleanly. I don't think Helms would've been able to get an out even if he picked it cleanly, because his momentum was taking him directly towards second where RAMON MARTINEZ was all ready sliding into the bag. Vizcy got behind DERREK LEE 2-1 but battled back and struck him out. Lee and COREY PATTERSON each had 3 K's for the bad guys.

All-Star closer DAN KOLB picked up his 25th save. He recorded two strikeouts, bringing his total to 11 in 32 innings of work. I know his low K totals are a bit worrisome, but as long as he doesn't give up a lot of hits and walks it shouldn't be a big of a problem. I can't believe I didn't notice this, but Kolb has yet to allow an extrabase hit this year. I haven't heard anybody talking about that either, which makes me wonder if maybe others haven't quite noticed either. 32 innings and he has only allowed 21 hits, all singles. There is your to why he is able to be successful without striking batters out...
...0 extra-base hits
...a WHIP of .081
...OPP BA of .194
...GB/F ratio that is over 4

It's really remarkable what Dan Kolb is doing this year.

Let's hope the Brewers can go for the series win tomorrow when MARK PRIOR (2-1, 3.38 ERA) faces off against VICTOR SANTOS (7-3, 4.02 ERA).

BREWERS OPEN UP THREE GAME SET WITH THE CUBS
Hopefully Brewers players, coaches and fans alike did what they could to get over the four-game sweep from Pittsburgh by drinking lots of beer and setting off fireworks yesterday. With the Cubs coming to town you know it's on now.

This is the first time the Cubs and Brewers will play this season, but they will play 11 times in the month of July which is absolutely insane. If the Brewers are going to make some noise in the division this month is going to be huge, with the bulk of their games coming against NL Central teams.

Today is a 1:05pm start time, which means that I must be heading down to Miller Park right now. I hope a lot of you are going to be able to attend this series because it should be a good one. Have a nice day, everybody.

BREWERS GET TWO ALL-STARS
BEN SHEETS and DAN KOLB were named to the National League All-Star team yesterday. It's the first time in franchise history that two pitcheers were selected from the Brewers in the same year. Kolb was a shoe-in with his 24 saves (in 25 opp) and 0.87 ERA. Sheets was as close to a lock as you can be with a 7-5 record. It was nice to see that other people around baseball saw the other numbers Sheets has put up and realized that he is definitely worthy of making the Mid-Summer Classic.

Unfortunately LYLE OVERBAY was left off of the NL Roster. ALBERT PUJOLS was voted in while TODD HELTON, SEAN CASEY and JIM THOME were selected as reserves. You can't really make a case for five firstbasemen to be selected to the team. All of them are having great years and it's just too bad that our boy Lyle had to be left off the team. With Sean Casey heading to the DL now that may open up a space for Overbay.

4TH OF JULY
I hope everybody has fun celebrating the independence of our country. Make sure to buy some fireworks and blow some things up and have a few beers...Nothing mixes quite like alcohol and small explosives.

BREWERS AND PIRATES
I don't get it. Why do the Pirates absolutely dominate the Brewers? It defies all logic. The Pirates outscored the Brewers 21-3 in the doubleheader Friday night and beat them soundly last night, although the Crew did battle back in the 8th to make it interesting. Nevertheless, the Pirates have continued to play like the '27 Yankees against the Brewers. You would have to think that Pittsburgh's dominance over the Brewers has gotten into their collective heads just a little. It's hard not to recognize that a team seems to have your number. "What does that matter?" you may be asking yourself, here's why I think it can be so bad...

If the Brewers get out to a 5-0 lead and never relinquish the lead there are no problems. The psychological aspect of it can be important when Pittsburgh gets out to an early lead. The self-fulfilling prophecy of "here we go again" can permeate throughout the club. Anybody who has ever been a part of a losing team in any sport knows that feeling. It might not always cost a win or a loss, but is still something that you would like to have stop.

How can it stop? The Brewers have to win in Pittsburgh. One game might not do it, maybe going to Pittsburgh and taking 2 of 3 or getting a sweep or something like that will do the trick.

And maybe it really isn't that big of a deal and it's just an awful lot of bad luck. Either way it has become incredibly frustrating.

ABOUT THE PHILOSOPHY OF "MONEYBALL"
In Bill Simmons' a.k.a. The Sports Guy's latest article (click here) he discusses the philosophy of "Moneyball" and says something that I think is interesting...

It's like a talented softball team, Billy Beane's "Moneyball" vision sprung to life. Just keep getting guys on base and everything will be fine. Or so they say.

Of course, Beane's Oakland teams haven't won a playoff series yet. And that's the problem. I'm not sure you can win this way. Teams that ignore the Little Things -- turning crisp double plays, taking the extra base, cutting off balls in the outfield, getting bunts down in big spots, running the bases without looking like you're drunk -- never seem to succeed in October. Eventually, you reach a point where the other team is just as good as you, so you have to roll up your sleeves and beat them by playing some baseball.-Bill Simmons

This point is what a lot of people have been saying, especially with the struggles the A's have had in the playoffs the past few years. I know comments like Simmons' in this article are not popular, especially in the baseball blogosphere, but I think there is some truth to what he is saying. The fact is that the "little things" in baseball add up many times to the difference between a win and a loss. The A's hurt themselves by completely devaluing defense a few years back (in Moneyball I believe at one time Oakland's management felt that fielding was only 5% of what it takes to win). Offensively valuing OBP and SLG are important, but not everything to an entire team. You can't sell out defense for the benefit of a few points of OBP. The value of individual defensive ability has not been accurately quantified yet, and I don't think ever will. With that said, teams will have to rely on the subjective element of evaluation to determine when to side with defense and when to go for offense at a position. A .230/.310/.385 hitting SS might be a good play for one team, but not for another one.

There is no one way to win at baseball, which is what makes the game so great. You can build a team on offense, on speed (which isn't done anymore), and on pitching and defense. Even within the basic concepts of how to build a team there is a lot of diversity. It is all very interesting and is why we all keep reading about, talking about and writing about the game.

THE RED SOX ARE LOSERS
How many different ways can the Red Sox find to lose to the Yankees? I know statistical analysis types will just discount last night's game as "another win" for the Yankees and "another loss" for the Red Sox, but it is more than that. These are people who forget that baseball is played by human beings, not by rolling dice and checking stratomatic cards or by running some type of computer simulation. If you don't believe in the power of psychology on sports look at the Cubs in Game 6 of the NLCS last year and they way they completely melted down after the Bartman/Alou incident. If that happens in New York do the Yankees collapse? I would say probably not.

And I know Derek Jeter isn't having the best year and that he isn't the best defensive shortstop in the league, but that was an awesome catch he made last night. I will always have respect for players who go all out.

ALL STARS
The Brewers have three National League All-Stars right now. BEN SHEETS, DAN KOLB, and LYLE OVERBAY each deserve to make the squad. Will MLB be comfortable with three Milwaukee Brewers in the All-Star Game? We will have to see, but lets look at their numbers and break down each players case for the All Star Game.

BEN SHEETS
You may remember that Sheets was an All-Star in his rookie season of 2001. Not to take anything away from Sheets, but that was more of a result of the Brewers needing their one All-Star more than him actually having an All-Star season.

The numbers...
7-5, 2.58 ERA
108.1 IP, 82 H, 113 K, 17 BB

Gray ink...
2nd in the NL in Ks
2nd in the NL in WHIP
3rd in the NL in OPP BA
4th in the NL in ERA
8th in the NL in IP

What will hurt him...
Playing in Milwaukee
Not a great win-loss record

What will help him...
His 18 K performance against Atlanta
His ERA and peripherals are outstanding


DAN KOLB
Dan Kolb took over as closer for the Milwaukee Brewers after Mike DeJean imploded during the first half of 2003 as the Brew Crew's stopper. Kolb was picked up off of the scrap heap by GM Doug Melvin and has been a great find, going along with Scott Podsednik and Doug Davis as some diamonds in the rough that the Brewers' GM has brought in.

The numbers...
0-0, 23 saves, 0.90 ERA (!!!)
30 IP, 21 H, 4 BB, 9 K

Gray ink...
3rd in the NL in Saves

What will hurt him...
Playing in Milwaukee
Not considered an over-powering closer (2.7 K/9)

What will help him...
His microscopic ERA
More saves than guys like Eric Gagne, who has 19


LYLE OVERBAY
Lyle Overbay was considered to be a stop-gap between Richie Sexson and top prospect Prince Fielder. All Overbay needed was a chance. He put up monster numbers in the minor leagues, but fell out of favor in Arizona and was desperately in need of a change of scenery. He will never hit 30+ homeruns, but has gap power and will be a lot like a Mark Grace type firstbaseman, which is a compliment, not a criticism.

The numbers...
.331 AVG, .396 OBP, .541 SLG, (.937 OPS)
9 HR, 56 RBI, 30 2B

Gray ink...
1st in the NL in 2B
5th in the NL in RBI
7th in the NL in AVG

What will hurt him...
Playing in Milwaukee (seeing a pattern here?)
Nobody cares about doubles
Lots of talent at 1B (Pujols, Thome, Bagwell)
Teams that need 1 All-Star have a good 1B (C. Wilson, Brad Wilkerson)

What will help him...
High average
On pace to give MLB doubles record a challenge


CONCLUSION
I would say Sheets is a lock, Kolb has about a 75% chance and Overbay is the one who is most likely to get overlooked (if any of them do). Since the Brewers are playing a lot better baseball I think it will help all three of these players' chances. Imagine if the Crew was 15 games below .500 right now, then people would be apprehensive about giving them three All-Stars. Remember when Milwaukee had Sexson and Hernandez as All-Stars in 2002, people were critical of such a bad team having two All-Stars. I'd like to hear everybody else's opinion on the All-Star credentials of these players, hopefully we will see Sheets, Overbay and Kolb in the All-Star Game in Houston fighting for the National League's right to homefield advantage in the World Series (which is another story all together).

NL CENTRAL, MLB SCHEDULE
The MLB schedule is messed up this year. If you look at the NL Central the overwhelming majority of intradivision games are played before the all-star break. The Cardinals and Cubs don't play each other after something like late July and there are a lot of other examples like that. What does it all mean?

Well, for now it means that all the teams are bunched together, because on most nights half the teams are winning and half of them are losing. It makes it difficult for a team to leapfrog a few other teams while there is so much intradivison play. Also, it means that as we get out of this abyss of divisional matchups there will begin to be more separation. Will Cincinnati continue to play well? What about Milwaukee? Is St. Louis for real? Will Houston get back on top of the division? Will the Cubs win the division like most people thought they would? Lots of questions here and they will all be answered as the season continues.