SABRMETRICS vs. SCOUTING
In case some of you didn't check the comments section below my "Mr. F***ING SWINGS AT EVERYTHING" post, I thought I'd put what one of the readers said right here...

I think the "debate", as it were, over traditional vs. sabermetrics is fascinating to read about and listen to. While, for the most part I appreciate and agree with the analysis provided by sabr types, the Moneyball zealots are truly obnoxious -- some sort of sociological trend of nerds using calculators instead of muscles. But, I am no statitician, and really don't even follow baseball all that closely as a Brewers fan, but I am curious to know what YOU think are the flaws in the philosophy. The biggest "flaw" I see is that the propenents -- especially the most religious of adherents -- use the statistics to prove their points after the fact, and also have little if any impact on the stategies within each individual game. Anyway curious to know how you'd critique it.
Adw Email 09.30.04 - 3:18 pm #

Well Mr. ADW, soon you will get your wish. What I plan on doing is breaking down the debate. Tomorrow I'll take the Moneyball side of the argument and then Saturday I'll take the anti-Moneyball side. This should be interesting, check back in the next few days to see how it goes and as always let your voice be heard on the comments section.

ADAM DUNN SETS SINGLE-SEASON K RECORD
Cincinnati Reds slugger ADAM DUNN struck out in his first two at-bats this afternoon in Chicago to set the Major League single-season record for most strikeouts, which now stands at 190. I have a few comments on this...

1) At least neither he nor the organization sat him a bunch down the stretch to prevent him from setting the record (like JOSE HERNANDEZ when he was with the Brewers).

2) 190 strikeouts are bad...But when put together with 45 HR, 107 RBI, and splits like .264/.387/.564 (.951 OPS) it really doesn't matter that much. If you have a slap hitter striking out 190 times then it is a concern, but as long as you have a guy hitting 45 HR and getting on base at a .387 clip, no worries at all, man.

MR F***ING SWINGS AT EVERYTHING
Remember the joy PAUL DEPODESTA and BILLY BEAN shared when MIGUEL TEJADA left Oakland to Baltimore this off season? Granted he signed a big contract...But I just thought we could look at his numbers right now...

.311/.362/.530 (.892 OPS) 32 HR 143 RBI

Not to mention that he is a Gold Glove caliber shortstop.

I don't want to set off an assault of "Shut up! Billy Beane is God" emails, all I'm saying is that the "Moneyball" strategy has many flaws to it's philosophy, just like a scouting based philosophy makes mistakes. I don't mean to take anything away from Beane because he is a great GM, one of the best in the game...Still though, he makes mistakes. Oakland has a payroll over 50 million, which is hardly what I would consider "small market", granted they're probably stretching it out right now because they have a chance to compete...Still I would think that the A's wish they would've spent the money to keep Tejada rather than having all that money tied up with somebody like JERMAINE DYE.

NL MVP RACE
How can anybody honestly say that BARRY BONDS isn't the National League MVP this year? ADRIAN BELTRE is having a great year, one of the best ever for a third baseman, and of course you can't forget about ALBERT PUJOLS, JIM EDMONDS or SCOTT ROLEN. But when it comes down to it, there is no way you can give the award to anybody else other than Bonds.

People forget how dominant Bonds is and I think there might be a few reasons for that. One would be that he isn't a friendly guy to the media, so people want to write him off. The second one is a reason I don't think anybody has ever mentioned, but I think it's true...That reason would be that people are taking him for granted. Imagine if some new guy had a season in which he .366/.610/.825 (OPS of 1.435), oh yeah and don't forget 45 HR, 101 RBI and 126 runs scored.

Bonds has six MVPs (and I would argue he should have at least seven of eight). His 2004 campaign should give him his seventh (or ninth in my count) MVP award. I know it must get boring for sportswriters to vote for Bonds every year, but what can you do? The man has earned it.

THIS JUST IN, MILTON BRADLEY IS A PSYCHO
If you haven't seen the highlights from last night, I'm sure you will eventually. A fan at Dodger Stadium threw a bottle at Dodgers outfielder MILTON BRADLEY and then Bradley went back to be Milton Bradley...That is in essence a psychopath.

I understand that the fan is completely wrong for throwing a bottle at Bradley, but his reaction was inappropriate and absolutely insane. His team is in the final week of the regular season, that has them playing the second place Giants this weekend for what could very well determine the NL West Champion and now the Dodgers will be without one of their best players.

You know, I can almost understand his going over to the fan and confronting him, but then after he got ejected and took his jersey off and walked off the field cursing at the fans of Los Angeles. I mean, what goes through this guys mind? He seriously needs help, this is not normal behavior.

This was an embarrassment to Major League Baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers and of course Milton Bradley, whether he realizes it or not.

WHY DO I STILL CARE?
Last night I stayed up to watch the Brewers 11-inning loss to the Diamondbacks. As BROOKS KIESCHNICK blew the second save opportunity for the Crew in the game I hit my bed in frustration and let out a tirade of expletives that I'm sure everybody else in my house appreciated. As I calmed down one question came to my mind...

Why do I still care?

In the grand scheme of things, the difference between 66 and 67 wins isn't really that big deal. The Brewers would have to win-out to improve upon their record from 2003, which is really unbelievable when you consider that this team was seven games over .500 at one point. All they've done since then is have the worst second half in MLB history for a team that was .500 at the half-way mark (breaking the 1975 Brewers record).

I'm getting off subject...Really though, why do I still care? I guess it's in my blood. No matter how many years the Brewers finish in last place, no matter how many times they're essentially eliminated from playoff contention by the end of April, I'll always be here, waiting for that one year when the team surprises everybody and starts winning something...Anything

ONE WEEK OF REGULAR SEASON BASEBALL LEFT
With the regular season coming to an end in Major League Baseball, there is a lot of potential for an exciting finish. There are still three races worth paying attention to...The AL West, the NL West and the NL Wild Card.

Personally I prefer Divisional races to Wild Card races. One of the things I don't like about the Wild Card is how confusing the race can get. The NL Wild Card race between San Francisco and Chicago could turn into a wild-card race between Houston and Los Angeles in a few days. The Wild Card does keep a lot of teams more competitive down the stretch in baseball, but it's not like the extra teams competing have taken baseball to a new level of fan interest. In 2004 the attendance numbers for most clubs are still lower than the pre-strike levels of the late 1980's and early 1990's.

And anyway, why pay attention to the Wild Card race when you can pay attention to the "Will the Brewers finish in last place?" race or the "Will the Brewers finish off worse than last year" race?

FANTASY FOOTBALL
Have you ever tried to explain the concept of fantasy football to a girl? Seriously, I think the more words you use trying to explain how you 'get points for the players statistical performances' the sharper the increase in the odds that you will be going home alone that night...or every night for at least the rest of the NFL season.

Baseball is by far my favorite sport, but fantasy baseball just doesn't do it for me. Maybe it's because things like Strat-O-Matic are out there. I don't know, either way I'm hooked to fantasy football and I don't know what to do about it.

BREWERS WIN?
The Crew actually looked pretty good last night, pay no attention to the fact that the Cardinals had a lineup that included JOHN MABRY, SO TAGUCHI, HECTOR LUNA, and YADIER MOLINA.

TONY LA RUSSA just loves to make lineup changes. He's so hooked that now the situational lefty/double-switch fests that he has made a career of participating in don't even feed his fix. The past two games he's scratched JIM EDMONDS and LARRY WALKER respectively.

I'm still waiting for La Russa after the September call-ups to go an entire game doing lefty/righty substitutions. I could him in his final game as a big league manager carrying 30 pitchers and just playing matchups the entire game.

I still am not completely sold on DAVE KRNYZEL, but he did show some of his talent last night. He made an outstanding catch in center, robbing Hector Luna of a homerun. He also showed off his speed on the bases as he stole second and hit a hustle double.

BREWERS LOSE, BREWERS LOSE
The Brewers are horrible. It's really too bad that they couldn't have built off of the momentum they had the first half of the year. The team has lost seven in a row and I find myself wanting the season to be over just for the simple reason that once it's all over it can't get any worse. Some observations...

...Is it bad that I'm torn between cheering for DAN KOLB to do really well (so the Brewers can trade him) and him doing really poorly (so he won't make as much in arbitration)?

...TONY LA RUSSA managed teams should not be allowed to have September call-ups. Come on, with a La Russa managed team having 4 lefties in the pen you're just asking for a 3 1/2 hour game.

...Also, I wonder how Tony La Russa stacks up against the MLB records for double switches in a game, season and career.

...In tonight's starting Brewers lineup there were about five guys that were in the minors all or a large portion of 2003...TRENT DURRINGTON, RUSSELL BRANYAN, MARK JOHNSON, CHRIS MAGRUDER, JORGE DE LA ROSA...if you count BILL HALL, who spent a lot of time in Indy last year that's six. I mean when you have a lineup that has Billy Hall hitting third, why even play the game?

...Russell Branyan with a shaved head looks a lot like STEVE, the bouncer from The Jerry Springer Show.

BREWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL
The Brewers are making their first appearance on Sunday Night Baseball since 1997. I know it's on ESPN2 opposite an NFL game, but still it's something.

I wish it would have worked out so that BEN SHEETS got to pitch on the big stage, but DOUG DAVIS would be the next guy who I think deserves the shot after Sheets.

Speaking of Davis, he is so bad with the bat. I know he's paid to pitch, but he is really really bad. I'm not even talking about his .017 batting average, he can't bunt at all. It's not only Davis, there are many pitchers in baseball that are completely pathetic at the plate. Really, it doesn't take a lot of skill to bunt adequately. And if you suck at bunting, go to the batting cage in the winter...I don't know, think of something. In the end it his pitching record that will be affected by his inability to contribute offensively.

I'm guessing tonight will be ESPN's lowest rated Sunday Night game of the year...Brewers/Astros, on ESPN2, opposite an NFL game...But like I said, for the Brewers, it is a start.

ABC BROADCASTS MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WITH A 5 SECOND DELAY
In over-reaction 32,329 to JANET JACKSON and JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE'S "Nipplegate" from Superbowl XXXVIII, ABC has announced that they will air Monday Night Football with a five-second delay. I for one am glad that ABC did this, just because it reduces the chance that I'll see JOHN MADDEN'S nipple accidently pop-out during a broadcast.

BONDS GOES 0-4 WITH A BB WEDNESDAY NIGHT
I went to last night's game, hoping to see history or a Brewers win (some would argue that a Brewers win counts as history as well). Well, in both respects I was disappointed.

WES OBERMUELLER went after BARRY BONDS two of the three times he faced him. Bonds just missed a first-pitch fastball that sent BRADY CLARK to the warning track. Props to Bonds for not running at all, and not even walking more than halfway down the line. I mean, I know there is no way to discipline one of the best hitters ever, but you just wish that he would have some pride. I'm not even asking for him to run hard, just jog to first. Okay, time to cue all the "I'd rather have a lazy Barry Bonds than a hustling TRENT DURRINGTON". I know, I would too. I just hate to see baseball played the wrong way. Call me old fashioned. Anyway...

Bonds will be in the lineup this afternoon facing VICTOR SANTOS. I guarantee you that if Santos gives up Bonds' 700th he won't
1) Realize what he's done
2) Care that he gave it up once he finds out it was 700

Santos has been a nice addition to the rotation, but the way he carries himself is hilarious. He walks around like his head is about to just roll off because it's too heavy.

BONDS STILL ON 699 HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT GAME
I had the pleasure of attending the Tuesday night game between the Giants and Brewers. To Milwaukee's credit they went after BARRY BONDS three of the four times he was at-bat. With a runner on second and two out DOUG DAVIS got him to pop-out. He walked in his second at-bat but that wasn't because he was being pitched around. He was intentionally walked in his third plate appearance. He hit a hard grounder to right field but was thrown out by KEITH GINTER who, while technically playing second base, fielded the grounder about 50 feet behind the dirt.

Funny conversation I heard yesterday between Brewers TV announcer DARON SUTTON and one of the Giants' announcers...

Giants guy: What can you tell me about TRAVIS PHELPS?
Daron: (without skipping a beat) He sucks.

COMMENTS WHILE WATCHING THE CUBS GAME
...Just as I was about to write about how much fun it is to watch the Cubs lose, NEIFI FREAKING PEREZ hits a two-run bomb to give the Cubs the lead at 6-5 in the 7th.

...I thought MIKE REMLINGER made good money, why did he feel the need to be in that awful Mastercard NFL commercial as the Patriots fan running through the forest playing football against trees?

...STEVE STONE hates MOISES ALOU so much. The other day, when Alou was out of the lineup, Stoney made a comment about how Alou was "available for pinch-running duty", which is an obvious jab at his terrible base-running efforts this season. Today, when Alou came up the exchange went something like this...
Caray: Alou hit a double and scored and then grounded out to the mound, he's 1-2.
Stoney: And he's seen two pitches today.

His comment was made in the most condescending tone ever. It was quite comical.

...One of the loudest cheers you'll ever hear from a crowd is whenever SAMMY SOSA hits the ball in the air. It doesn't matter if it's a foul over the first-base dugout, the crowd in Chicago goes crazy.

...Has anybody noticed how much WGN's TV crew goes out of their way to put the largest breasted, hottest women in the stands on camera all the time? Trust me, I'm not complaining, just an observation.

AGAINST THE GRAIN IS BACK
I know this is very exciting for everybody. Against the Grain has returned. Just like Michael Jordan, everytime you think I'm done for good I come back with a vengence...Then retire and comeback again. All right, let's get to it.

BLOG WILL RETURN REGULARLY ON SEPT 15
Against the Grain will return to being regularly updated on September 15th. I moved into a new apartment and have been waiting to get my internet connection.

As I write this the Brewers are winning 7-2 and Gary Glover is pitching. Weird.