5.21.2004

THE DEMISE OF DEREK JETER?
Buster Olney of ESPN.com wrote this article about Derek Jeter's lack of plate discipline. He notes that out of Jeter's 159 at-bats this season, 54 (about one-third) have been resolved in the first two pitches.

The demise of Jeter is something that I have been predicting for a year or two now. Well, demise is a strong word, more of a decline is what I predicted. Check out Derek Jeter's OPS over the past few seasons.

1996... .800, 10 HR
1997... .775, 10 HR
1998... .865, 19 HR
1999... .990, 24 HR
2000... .897, 15 HR
2001... .857, 21 HR
2002... .794, 18 HR
2003... .843, 10 HR
2004... .541, 3 HR (171 ABs)

Players rarely decline five or six consecutive seasons. When I look at Jeter's numbers since 1999 I see his OPS declining three seasons in a row, and then him improving a little in 2003, but still nowhere near his best season in 1999. Nobody could have predicted Jeter to be hitting under .200 in mid-May, but I felt strongly that he would have a "disappointing" season in many people's eyes. Whether or not Jeter hitting, say 15 HR with a .340 OBP and .430 SLG in 2004 is actually disappointing, given the trend he is on remains to be seen.

11:23 AM